Rapid deceleration in London house prices to plateau: Hometrack

Row of houses

Annual average United Kingdom city house price growth slowed in May, but increased during the last three months, the results of a survey showed.

This increase has been driven by above average growth in large regional cities such as Birmingham (3.8%), Nottingham (3.8%), Newcastle (3.5%) and Manchester (3.3%). Across the nation as a whole, average prices increased by 3.5 per cent over the quarter - the highest quarterly rate for four years.

Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Hometrack, said: "There is clear potential for additional house price growth in cities outside South Eastern England".

Home prices in London have nearly doubled since 2009 as low mortgage rates allowed buyers to borrow more and the supply of new stock failed to meet demand.

Annual growth in May was 5.1 per cent a year, down from 8.8 per cent in May 2016.

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Since 2009 prices in London had shot higher by 85% while on Glasgow they had only risen by 12%, it explained. House prices in London have grown 90 per cent since 2009 but growth in ten cities has been below 30 per cent over the same period. The average price of a home was 492,200 pounds in May.

In London the slowdown over the past 12 months has been even more dramatic with house price inflation rapidly decelerating from 14.0 per cent in May 2016 to 3.3 per cent in May 2017. Both cities have delivered a sustained and consistent level of house price growth in the a year ago and show little signs of slowing. It predicts annual growth to end the year at 2-3%.

It also suggests that affordability and uncertainty are impacting demand in London which has the lowest annual growth for five years, although a rapid deceleration in price inflation is showing signs of bottoming out.

Hometrack says that year-on-year price falls are not expected in London for 2017, instead plateauing at between 2-3%. Overseas interest keeping United Kingdom house prices stableLiz Syms, chief executive at London-based Connect Mortgages, commented: "With the weakening of the pound, we are getting interest still from overseas, which helps keep the prices stable - as well as the shortage of houses". Other than Oxford, a city paying the price for its previous accolade of UK's most expensive, and Aberdeen, which has suffered due to a declining economy, house price growth across the UK's major cities seems to have remained stable.

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