ADB keeps China growth forecast unchanged at 6.7 pct

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimated that Indonesia may see a 5.1 percent economic growth this year with a positive economic outlook in the future thanks to current massive infrastructure development.

ADB likewise retained its growth projection of 5.9 percent for developing Asia in 2017 and 5.8 percent in 2018 on the back of broad-based recovery in global trade, robust expansion in major industrial economies, and improved prospects for China. The dollar value of the region's exports surged by 11 per cent in the first five months of this year over the same period last year, she said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's dividends to the government fell by half of that the previous financial year, backed by the "cost of printing new banknotes and absorbing excess liquidity resulting from the currency exchange process".

The September edition of Asian Development Outlook 2017 also puts the spotlight on the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in helping countries in the Asia and Pacific - including Indonesia - to meet their infrastructure needs of $1.7 trillion per year. The ADB had initially forecast 5.7% growth for both 2017 and 2018. "What we see is that numerous midsized banks are focusing on increasing asset quality rather than chasing credit growth", she said during a press briefing in Jakarta on Tuesday. Public and private investment, and household consumption supported by remittances from overseas Filipinos, were the key drivers of growth.

This Update revises downward the forecast for average inflation in the region, from 3.0 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2017 and from 3.2 per cent to 2.9 per cent in 2018.

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ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada said in a statement that the growth prospects of developing Asian countries are looking up on the back of "a revival in world trade and strong momentum in the People's Republic of China".

She added it was impossible for loan growth to reach double digits at the end of this year, but it might be close to 10 percent. It expects growth next year to pick up to 7.4 percent, lower than the previously estimated 7.6 percent, reported Moneycontrol.

Net exports, which have contributed to China's growth so far, would not continue to contribute in 2018, when imports are again expected to exceed exports. ADB had recorded economic growth, lower than 7.1% in 2016-17 and previously forecast a 7.4% growth rate in July.

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