USDA lowers 2018 wheat, soybean carryover from October

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its average corn yield estimate to 175.4 bushels per acre which if it holds would be a new record

The agency's revised global stock forecasts for 2017-18 of 267.53 million metric tons were a record.

Before the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly crop supply and demand estimates on Thursday, the trade's common expectation was that USDA would cut U.S. soybean crop estimate while lifting the corn crop.

The USDA said corn export sales jumped last week to a 5-1/2-year high of more than 2.9 million tonnes, including 2.3 million for shipment in the current marketing year, topping trade estimates. But an estimated 2.14 million acres will be run through the combines in 2017-breaking the previous record set past year. Harvested area of corn was forecast at 83.1 million acres, unchanged from October and down 4% from a year ago. The only state that pulled back was Nebraska, where the yield estimate was lowered by -2 bushels per acre.

Soybean production was forecast at a record 4,425 million bushels, down just 6 million bushels from 4,431 million bushels in October but up 129 million bushels, or 3 percent, from 4,296 million bushels a year ago.

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Paris wheat futures ended slightly higher on Friday, coming off an earlier one-week low, as Chicago grain prices steadied after a day-earlier slide sparked by a forecast for a record US corn yield. Last month the USDA predicted average yields in Colorado would be 145.0 bushels per acre, but that figure was increased to 148.0 this month. "USDA also increased its forecast of Brazilian production, though it's still too early to be making real judgements there".

Corn and soybean futures rebounded on Friday as traders absorbed a government report projecting larger-than-expected harvests.

Today's close will say a lot about the tone of the soybean market, Knorr adds. "Failure to hold support could trigger some liquidation by funds, which have tried to establish a small bullish bet on soybeans lately".

The USDA forecast the corn carryover of September 1, 2018, at 2,487 million bus. Ending stocks were lowered by 22 million bushels but remain at record levels. Moreover, The USDA reported 1.16 mt of soybeans sold for export during the week of 11/2.

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