IEA: Global Crude Demand to Endure Wave of Electric Cars

Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production

The Paris-based IEA argued that with consumption in petrochemicals and other transportation still growing, the drop in oil demand would be at a modest pace.

This sentiment comes in part on the back of rising USA oil output C-OUT-T-EIA, which has grown by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million bpd. And the IEA expects non-OPEC countries to boost output by 1.4 million barrels a day next year, doubling this year's production growth.

The oil market should be able to find a longer-term equilibrium, with the oil price in the range of $50-70 a barrel, the agency said.

The IEA states that the shale oil revolution in the USA continues thanks to the "remarkable ability of producers to unlock new resources in a cost-effective way".

Fitch Ratings said in its 2018 oil outlook that it assumed 2018 "average oil prices will be broadly unchanged year-on-year and that the recent price recovery with Brent exceeding $60 per barrel may not be sustained".

Opec said in the latest edition of the World Oil Outlook forecasts that oil would supply just over 27 per cent of worldwide energy needs in 2040, while natural gas will see its share at slightly more than 25 per cent.

The US government said on Monday US shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd. But analysts expect the price to not rise much further in coming months as the USA ramps up production.

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After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday. The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now.

Some ministers for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said an extension of an agreement that sidelines about 2 percent of the total global demand for oil in an effort to balance the market was necessary next year.

"Many commentators say we are writing the obituary for oil demand".

However, even rapid growth in the electric vehicle fleet would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s, it said.

Analysts also noted that oil prices were being pressured by a global commodities selloff, led by base metals like nickel and copper, due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China.

"Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places", said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

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