Oil prices fall as U.S. shale output growth gathers pace

US shale price chart

The International Energy Agency on Monday revised USA oil output growth up sharply, saying the country would be producing a total of almost 17 million barrels per day in 2023, up from 13.2 million a year ago, eating into OPEC's market share and moving closer to self-sufficiency.

But the report finds that despite falling costs, additional investment will be needed to spur supply growth after 2020.

"Despite talk of capital discipline and increased focus on returns rather than growth, USA producers regrouped quickly when oil prices stabilized and began to rise", said the IEA.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol made the remarks to reporters at the CERAWeek by IHS Markit that kicked off on Monday in Houston in the US state of Texas.

[A] s we've highlighted repeatedly, the weak global investment picture remains a source of concern. "More investments will be needed to make up for declining oil fields - the world needs to replace 3 mb/d of declines each year, the equivalent of the North Sea - while also meeting robust demand growth". The increasing penetration of electric buses and LNG trucks will have a bigger impact on curbing consumption of transport fuels than the electrification of passenger vehicles. Without more investment outside the United States - and soon - keeping up with growing demand by 2023 could be hard.

IEA said India follows China in terms of growth in the demand for oil, and together the oil demand of those two countries accounts for about half of the growth in global oil demand. The result could be the thinnest margin of oil-production capacity over demand in more than a decade. Exports will more than double over the next six years to 4.9 million barrels a day, according to the IEA's estimates.

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The strongest growth is expected to come from the Permian Basin, a vast oil and gas pool that lies under parts of Texas and New Mexico.

OPEC and other major producers agreed to cut combined output by about 1.8 million bpd to drain a global oil glut.

Virtually all of the OPEC output growth comes from the Middle East.

The IEA predicts that within five years, the cushion of production capacity over expected demand will fall to its lowest level since 2007.

Venezuela's oil production is running 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) short of its historic output but it is something that the country must address itself, Ecuador oil minister Carlos Perez said on Monday.

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