The Unemployment Rate Is The Lowest It's Been Since April 2000

U.S. gains 223,000 jobs in May, unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent

That's the biggest percentage gain in factory jobs since 1995. Officially, the numbers were released at 8:30 a.m.

It seems to be that Trump knew the data before it was officially announced. Eastern Daylight Time, but President Donald Trump, in an early morning tweet, said he was looking forward to seeing them, a signal perhaps that they would be positive.

Still, the labor market is getting tighter. For black Americans, it hit a record low of 5.9 percent. Many economists predict it will fall even further this year, potentially dropping to 3.5 percent, which would be the lowest rate since 1969.

Average hourly earnings went up 8 cents in May, to $26.92. Traders, however, raised bets for four rate hikes this year. Average hourly pay rose 2.7 per cent in May from a year earlier, below the 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent pace that occurred the last time unemployment was this low.

The participation rate remains a closely watched measure for central bankers.

"It will keep the Fed on its gradual normalisation path". Goldman Sachs forecast 2.6 percent wage growth for May.

The unemployment rate, rounded to one decimal, is the lowest since April 2000.

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As a result, some "two-thirds of the drop in the unemployment rate in May was because workers found jobs, while about one-third of the drop was from people leaving the labor force", the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute noted. Wages in May were up 2.7 percent from a year ago, roughly in line with gains seen in recent months.

"He didn't give any numbers", Kudlow said. Unemployment has steadily improved, economic growth has ticked up slightly, and wage growth has been slight.

"This is the last shoe to drop in the labour market", said Torsten Slok, chief global economist at Deutsche Bank. Nation's unemployment rate is at 18-year low. The issue this raises is whether jobs that would normally be held by people with little or no skill are indeed filled. Almost 15 percent of what he calls "job stayers" saw no increase in wages in the past 12 months. The erosion of workers' bargaining power has also played a role.

The ISM said its purchasing managers index climbed to 58.7 in May from 57.3 in April, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the manufacturing sector. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 476,000.

More recently, though, job growth has experienced an unexpected uptick. Now, as the latter group finds higher-paying positions, young workers are filling the gap. It also spurred increased bets on two more increases this year after that, rather than one, though trade disputes and weakness in some European economies pose risks to US growth. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note, adding that his team is "much more comfortable with our view that the Fed will move each quarter until mid-2019, barring a further escalation in the trade war". Speaking to reporters ahead of his departure for Texas on Thursday, Trump spoke glowingly about the "best unemployment we've had in many, many decades", though it's unclear if he was just speaking generally about the state of the economy or was speaking specifically to the content of the May report. And higher Trump Administration tariffs on imports will likely fuel faster inflation and force the Federal Reserve to raise short-term rates more rapidly. Bond yields jumped nearly immediately, and the dollar moved higher.

People not counted in the official unemployment figure, who would like to have a job based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data. "If you weren't on Twitter, you didn't and that's problematic for markets". Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher.

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