Canada: Employment likely to fall by 10k in April - TDS

Canada: Employment likely to fall by 10k in April - TDS

Furthermore, the unemployment edged lower despite over 100k joining the labour force, which help push the participation rate 0.2pp higher to 65.9% for the first time in two years. The numbers come amid rising energy exports, solid factory output, and an ongoing expansion in the services sector. "Almost every indicator of quality came in strong this month", TD senior economist Brian DePratto wrote in a research note.

The unemployment rate also dropped to 5.7%, which is near historic lows.

A closer look at the April numbers reveals the overall gain was driven by the creation of 73,000 full-time jobs and 83,800 positions in the private sector.

Meanwhile, Canada's economy reported its biggest one-month employment surge since 1976, when the government started collecting comparable data. That trounced the median economist forecast for a gain of 12,000 positions.

Job gains were spread across several industries: wholesale and retail trade; construction; information, culture and recreation; "other services"; public administration; and agriculture.

The national unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent.

Ontario had a particularly strong month in terms of employment, as it rose by 47,000 jobs, with the majority being part-time work among people aged 15 to 24.

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Year-over-year average hourly wage growth for all employees in April was 2.5 per cent, up from a reading of 2.4 per cent in March.

The Bank of Canada projected 1.2 per cent growth in Canada's GDP in 2019, 0.5 percentage points lower than what it predicted in January.

"We still believe that recent labour market performance is not consistent with broader economic conditions and is unsustainable, although the magnitude of this month's outperformance suggests that the inherent volatility of the labour force survey is not the sole factor".

The jobs increases have largely reflected higher labour force numbers as the economy pulls in new workers, rather than falling unemployment.

"The labour market in Canada is doing pretty well at absorbing that influx of labour right now".

London's participation rate continued to struggle, it fell to 58.6 per cent in April and is now the second worst in the entire country.

The Canadian economy added a record 106,500 jobs in April, Statistics Canada said on Friday, a timely boost for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who trails in opinion polls less than half a year before the October general election.

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