First Alert Forecast: local summery pattern, watching tropical waves in the Atlantic

First Alert Forecast: local summery pattern, watching tropical waves in the Atlantic

We'll see clear skies tonight with temperatures falling once again into the low-70s.

The system is producing a cluster of rain and thunderstorms near the Turks and Caicos, and will slowly move northwest over the next several days.

For the system nearest to the United States the see a 0% chance of formation into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, rising to 30% over the next 5 days.

The National Hurricane Center now puts a 60% chance for development over the next five days.

Damage is seen in the wake of Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbour Great Abaco Bahamas
Damage is seen in the wake of Hurricane Dorian in Marsh Harbour Great Abaco Bahamas

Currently, however, four tropical systems are being closely monitored including Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the North Atlantic. Hopefully, it will not develop into anything more than just a rainmaker but if it does get stronger the system's close proximity to the coast will make time of the essence should you need to react. The second is located near the Cape Verde Islands and has a 30% chance of development during the next five days. Models are in slightly better agreement from yesterday, as the GFS now is leaning with the EURO suggesting that the ridge will limit development and higher rain coverage west of New Orleans. These conditions favor the growth of tropical waves that frequently march across the Atlantic in mid to late September which seed developing tropical cyclones.

Ireland and Scotland will instead have to contend with a fresh storm front that will drop plenty of rain before it scatters and spreads south. Both had low chances of development as of Wednesday morning. The opposite is the case for the EURO, where the operational run show no closed low and the ensembles do.

We'll keep you updated!

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