COVID-19 Induces Deep Global Recession for 2020, Says IMF

Gita Gopinath chief economist at the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that inequality within countries is growing with low-skilled workers women and young people hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis

The IMF upgraded the global GDP forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points, but trimmed the 2021 growth outlook to 5.2 percent.

But the USA rebound in 2021 is expected to be 3.1 percent, 1.4 percentage points below the earlier projection.

The IMF said forecasts for the global economy were "somewhat less dire" as wealthy countries and China rebounded more quickly than expected.

The IMF chief economist also noted that emerging market and developing economies - many constrained by elevated debt and higher borrowing costs - will need to prioritize critical spending for health and transfers to the poor and ensure maximum efficiency.

For his part, Deputy Minister for Financial Policy and Institutional Development, Ahmed Kojak, said that this report confirms the confidence of the International Monetary Fund experts in the performance of the national economy, while they raised their estimates of the growth rate of the Egyptian economy during the past two years and the current one, adding that the growth rate was negative in the economies of emerging and developing countries.

China's GDP expanded 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, reversing a contraction of 6.8 percent in the first quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The two agencies expected China to be the only major economy to see growth expansion this year.

The minister pointed out that Egypt is the only country in the Middle East and Africa that has preserved the confidence of all three global rating institutions: "Standard & Poor's", "Moody's" and "Fitch" during one of the most hard periods in the global economy in light of the coronavirus pandemic. China will continue to build an open economy and is willing to boost economic policy coordination with other countries to contribute to stabilization and recovery, the ministry said.

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The IMF graph projects that the per capita GDP of both India and Bangladesh would be at Dollars 1,888 for 2020.

Lastly, policies should be designed with an eye toward placing economies on paths of stronger, equitable, and sustainable growth, Gopinath said.

While most economies reopened, prompting the International Monetary Fund to improve its current forecast to somewhat over its June prediction, Gopinath said resurgences of the virus and other political uncertainties suggest the global economic recovery will be slow and uneven well into 2021.

The IMF report should serve as a guideline for gold investors.

The growth projections imply wide negative output gaps and elevated unemployment rates this year and in 2021 across both advanced and emerging market economies, it added.

He affirmed that the government will continue implementing an integrated package of structural reforms to strengthen the macroeconomic structure, in a way that contributes to achieving economic targets by registering a primary surplus and raising economic growth rates, in a manner that helps preserve economic gains. The IMF said the virus was continuing to spread in large countries including India and Indonesia, and those economies are far more dependent on hard-hit sectors including tourism and commodities as well as on remittances and other sources of external finance.

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