International Monetary Fund forecasts 4pc GDP growth for Pakistan in 2022

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The U.S. and India will be the second and third-biggest contributors to global growth in the period, according to the International Monetary Fund, with Japan and Germany rounding out the top five.

The pandemic is expected to "leave smaller scars" than the 2008 financial crisis, due to the unprecedented policy response.

Britain has suffered Europe's highest coronavirus death toll and its economy shrank by nearly 10 per cent a year ago, the worst performance among the region's big economies except for Spain.

After an estimated contraction of 8% in the fiscal year that ended March 31, India is projected to grow at 12.5% during the current year, settling down to 6.9% growth year (FY22/23), according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO): Managing Divergent Recoveries, released by the IMF as the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings kick off virtually.

The global recovery is expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, noting that policymakers should take early action and tighten selected macroprudential policy tools while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions.

Still, risks remain for even the swiftest prospective performers: India, for example, set a record for daily COVID-19 infections on Monday - a wave Gopinath conceded is not reflected in the latest forecast and poses downside risks.

She cautioned that a six-month delay in having widespread vaccinations in advanced economies and nine months for emerging and developing economies would hinder the economic recovery.

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In 2020, the global economy contracted by 3.3 per cent.

"Higher debt service costs are also expected to constrain their ability to address social needs, including rising poverty and growing inequality, or to correct the setback in human capital accumulation during the crisis", it said. Countries will again encounter the obstacles they faced before the pandemic, including aging work forces in most rich countries and in China. "While China's economy had already returned to pre-pandemic GDP level in 2020, many other countries are not expected to do so until 2023", she added.

The Washington-based fund's World Economic Outlook also boosted its forecast for the global economy, anticipating vaccine rollouts over the summer that will strengthen economic recovery through the second half of the year.

The organization now expects the global economy to grow by 6% this year, up from 5.5% forecast in January.

In a blog on the forecasts, the IMF's chief economist Gita Gopinath says a way out of the health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.

Gopinath told reporters that policymakers need to take a "tailored" approach in providing support, with policies well-calibrated to the stage of the pandemic, the strength of the economic recovery, and the structural characteristics of individual countries. Such losses were reversing gains in poverty reduction, with an additional 95 million people expected to have entered the ranks of the extreme poor in 2020 when compared with pre-pandemic projections.

Countries with weaker positions or limited access to vaccines may also face portfolio outflows.

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